Monthly Outlook

After further unsettled and rather cool weather, the middle of June will have a warmer and drier trend as high pressure builds, with some hot days possible – at least in parts of England and Wales.

Cool, wet and windy at times

The rest of this week will be rather cool and very unsettled, with a sequence of low-pressure circulations and frontal systems passing across the UK.

Wednesday and Thursday will be wet and windy everywhere, with some locally heavy or thundery bursts of rain. Some areas will become more showery on Thursday, but any brighter intervals will probably be short lived.

Friday should become less breezy and may have a better chance of some sunny spells in between sharp and scattered showers. Temperatures are going to fall near or even a shade below the early-June average; but with south-west to westerly winds, eastern areas may be a little warmer.

At the weekend, winds should return to more of a southerly direction, so a slight uptick in temperatures is probable for most areas. The track of low-pressure systems will probably start to shift further north, although associated fronts will still take showers or lengthier periods of rain across most regions of the UK.

However, the south and east could start to become drier by Sunday, with the bulk of the rain beginning to target the north-west.

Changeable, then drier and warmer

The middle of June should be dominated by high pressure near or across the UK and the jet stream displaced farther north than usual, with 'blocked' weather patterns across Europe. This will include higher pressure than normal towards Scandinavia. As a result, the UK should experience further temperature increases, with widespread warmer-than-average conditions and some very warm or hot days, particularly across parts of England and Wales.

Given this set-up, it should also be drier than normal, with Atlantic systems mostly diverted north of the UK and sliding towards southwest Europe. There is a chance that a front or two could brush past the northern UK, with a chance of a little rain, most likely in Scotland. Some rainfall cannot be ruled out anywhere but it would more likely be in the form of an outbreak of localised heavy showers or thunderstorms.

There is a risk that high pressure could be centred farther west, which would lead to cooler and perhaps wetter conditions, but that's only a 10 to 20% chance.

Becoming less warm by the end of June

A similar set-up could persist into the latter part of June, continuing to promote warmer and drier weather than normal in most areas, although with the same provisos when considering any possible rainfall. Some notable heat may still be possible initially. There remains a slight chance of an alternate scenario where high pressure is weaker or aligned differently, with cooler and wetter results.

As time goes by, the expected high pressure anomalies across and around Scandinavia could weaken, with Atlantic high pressure perhaps becoming more likely by early July. This could lead to a reduction in warmth across the UK. Nevertheless, temperatures are still more likely to be above average than below, or at least near seasonal. Rainfall amounts should be below or close to average but conditions may become wetter before the end of the outlook period.

In Tuesday's outlook, we will see if there is consistency in the forecast of a drier and warmer spell around and after the middle of June.