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Friday's papers: Conservation commitments, rainy-day reserves, and Nato intervention

Just over 40 percent of respondents in a recent Maaseudun Tulevaisuus poll said they supported Nato troops or air support being deployed to aid Ukraine.

Marina von Weissenberg keltaisessa neuleessa.
Marina von Weissenberg is Finland's chief negotiator at the COP15 conference in Montreal. Image: Mårten Lampén / Yle
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The fifteenth UN Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP15) is currently taking place in Montreal, Canada. The conference, continuing from its initial meeting in October 2021, aims to limit the loss of biodiversity by 2030.

Helsingin Sanomat covered a Finnish angle on it, interviewing Finland's chief negotiator Marina von Weissenberg.

A fierce debate between developing and developed countries over who shares the burden of responsibility for conservation and climate change continues from the recent COP27 in Egypt.

While there is not yet a consensus, the biggest objective of the meeting is still on the table—a conservation pledge among the over 190 participating countries.

Von Weissenberg was still hopeful that this pledge to protect 30 percent of each member state's land and sea area by the end of 2030 would be adopted by the end of the conference.

"Yes, they will stay. They will not be given up easily. We need to come out of here with some numbers," von Weissenberg told HS over a phone call.

According to von Weissenberg, China has been active during the conference in Montreal, holding over a hundred bilateral discussions with representatives from countries around the world.

The meeting is expected to conclude on Monday. Before then, the Chinese chair of the conference will offer a deal which von Weissenberg described as a "take it or leave it" type of deal.

On Thursday, Finland's Minister of the Environment and Climate Change Maria Ohisalo (Green) also arrived in Montreal for the conference.

Finland may need its energy reserves this winter

Tampere-based daily Aamulehti reported on Finland's energy reserves—which amount to roughly five months at current consumption rates.

According to Pia Oesch, a leading researcher at the National Emergency Supply Agency of Finland, the country may need to dip into its reserves this winter.

"It is more likely than it has been for decades," Oesch told AL in regards to the reserves being deployed.

Oesch's agency maintains state reserves as well as setting guidelines for compulsory stocks held by companies. The reserves include petroleum products, coal and natural gas—though Oesch said gas supplies are limited.

According to Oesch the emergency oil reserve is of particular focus and there have been maintenance exercises. Preparations have been made in case of a crisis situation where the reserve has to be mobilised.

"A new addition is the emergency peat reserve. A wood reserve is also currently being prepared," Oesch added.

All these reserve fuels can be used to generate electricity in Finland, if necessary.

Oesch stated that electricity production is on a reasonable pattern, despite price increases.

"Russia's invasion of Ukraine came quite quickly. We have had a good six months to prepare for the winter in terms of fuels, which certainly created a challenge for many in terms of purchasing fuel and is reflected in our capacity to generate power," Oesch noted.

In addition, the colder than average weather in Finland this December has impacted electricity usage. Oesch pointed out that electricity supply and demand are among the biggest concerns for Finland for this and the following winter.

"You can't store electricity anywhere. This is clearly the challenge as society becomes more electrified, as all activities, including transport and industry, are electrified," Oesch told AL.

Nato intervention poll

In a recent poll commissioned by Maaseudun Tulevaisuus almost 40 percent of respondents favoured some sort of Nato intervention in Ukraine.

The question posed by MT asked whether Nato countries should send troops or air support to aid Ukraine.

The poll questioned more than 1,000 people living in Finland in early December.

Thirty-two percent of all respondents were against such a Nato intervention. MT wrote that nearly 29 percent found the question difficult and could not answer either for or against.

According to the poll, MT said that the Finns Party supporters were the most likely to support intervention with one in two in favour. Support for an intervention was also above 40 percent in the National Coalition Party, Green Party and Left Alliance.

Additionally, 48 percent of respondents from rural municipalities supported intervention, while 40 percent of respondents from the Helsinki area agreed with such a move.

Just over 44 percent of male respondents supported Nato intervention in Ukraine, while just over 35 percent of women in the survey favoured such a move.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine began last February and MT wrote that no serious peace agreements are in the works.

While Nato allies have sent billions of euros worth of military equipment and arms to Ukraine, Nato member states have not sent troops or air support, avoiding direct confrontation with Russia. Nato has also not declared Ukraine a no-fly zone.

Jyri Lavikainen from the Finnish Institute for International Affairs, illustrated what such an intervention would mean for the war itself, Finland, Nato and Russia.

"The decision would be so big that it would not be worth sending a small number of troops to Ukraine, but would be in effect an open war by Nato against Russia. Russia would certainly lose the war unless it escalated the war in some new way," the researcher summarised.

Whether or not such an intervention is strategically wise is debatable according to Lavikainen.

"No one in the US or elsewhere wants to give Russia such clear-cut options. Of course, a Russian defeat is already Nato's goal, but in this situation Russia could certainly not know how bad the defeat would be. It would introduce a false sense of uncertainty into Russian decision-making," Lavikainen pointed out.

Lavikainen said that the US position on Ukraine is to support the country, but not get directly involved in an attempt to avoid a broader—possibly nuclear—war with Russia.

While MT asked for comments from President Sauli Niinistö and the defence ministry, the paper received no response on account of the changeover of defence ministers from Antti Kaikkonen to Mikko Savola.