The governing National Coalition Party (NCP) and the opposition Social Democrats (SDP) are neck-and-neck at the top of Yle's latest monthly poll of voters.
The SDP saw its backing among voters slip by 1.4 percent from last month, while the Petteri Orpo-led NCP gained support by the exact same amount.
The latest results put the SDP on top — but only just — with 21.4 percent support compared to the NCP's 21.2 percent.
This represents a significant reversal for both parties, as last month's poll results showed growing support for the SDP and a 2.4 drop in backing for the NCP — which had become embroiled in the series of racism scandals that beset the new government during its first few weeks in office.
The SDP's 3 percentage point lead over the NCP in August has now shrunk to just 0.2 percent.
Research director at pollster Taloustutkimus Tuomo Turja told Yle that voters who moved towards the SDP during the summer have now migrated back to the NCP, as the furore over the summer scandals has settled down.
"In July, the SDP received a huge boost in support, which was related to the government's various difficulties, but there has been some sort of recoil effect in this poll," he said.
The NCP is also gaining support among previous Finns Party voters, Turja noted, with the party led by Riikka Purra seeing a slight drop of 0.7 percent in backing.
This leaves the Finns Party on 18.5 percent, a significant drop from the 21 percent it had polled earlier this year. Male voters in particular, Turja said, had moved their support from the Finns Party to the NCP during the latest polling period.
Some previous Finns Party now said they have no party affiliation, he added.
Centre climbing back
Among the other parties, the opposition Centre Party enjoyed another small bump in support as it gradually recovers from a poor election showing in April.
The Centre now stands on 11.5 percent — a relatively low figure for a party once considered one of Finland's "top three" — but an improvement from the parliamentary election result and a consolidation of its fourth place in the standings.
Turja believes this may represent a return of some previously-disatisfied supporters to the Centre, with new supporters also coming in from the ruling Christian Democrats party.
The two other main opposition parties — the Greens and the Left Alliance — saw small dips in support during the latest polling period.
"The Greens got some kind of support bounce in June, when the party leadership changed. It seems that progress has not continued into July and August," Turja said.
The Yle-commissioned survey was conducted by polling firm Taloustutkimus between 2 August and 5 September 2023. It queried 2,459 people in Finland, asking respondents which party they would vote for if parliamentary elections were to be held now. Some 1,775 respondents indicated their party affiliation. The poll had a maximum margin of error of 2 percentage points in either direction.
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