Prime Minister Petteri Orpo's (NCP) right-wing coalition government meets on Tuesday for its first round of budget talks.
The four governing parties already have a broad consensus on their economic policies, hammered out during seven weeks of government formation talks during the spring. The budget for 2024 will be based on a proposal published by the Ministry of Finance — and presented to the media by Finance Minister Riikka Purra (Finns) — at the end of August.
However, some details are still being fine-tuned in discussions between the finance and other ministries.
The resulting changes, and other contentious issues, will form part of the upcoming negotiations between the four parties — although Yle's understanding is that the talks are expected to be amicable.
The preliminary draft forecasts a budget deficit of about 10 billion euros next year, with the Finnish state facing expenditure of 87 billion euros in 2024 and revenue of about 77 billion.
This deficit is likely to be discussed during the two-day talks, as well as the government's fiscal plan for 2024-2027 and a second draft supplementary budget for 2023. Supplementary budgets cover unexpected expenditure accrued during the year.
Here are five main points to look out for in this year's budget discussions.
1. Current economic climate
The four governing parties cannot ignore the bigger global economic picture, with dark clouds hovering ominously on the horizon. Economic growth is stalling in Europe, driven in particular by the downturn in Germany, which is widely considered to be the region's economic powerhouse.
Finland is forecast to at least see a gloomier outlook than originally expected, and may even enter a mild recession.
This has led some economists to urge the government to postpone its planned cuts to expenditure, arguing that they will exacerbate the already-worsening economic situation.
In its budget proposal, the government outlined its plan to make cuts to social and healthcare services as well as to social welfare benefits. Roope Uusitalo, a Professor of Public Finance at the University of Helsinki, told Yle that the government is unlikely to dramatically alter its current course.
"Although forecasts predict a slowdown in economic growth over the next year, we currently have few unemployed people and more people in jobs than ever," Uusitalo said.
2. Curbing spending on social security
The provision of social and healthcare services swallows up a hefty slice of the state budget, and the government has stated in its budget proposal that it aims to curb spending in this sector by 1.4 billion euros during its time in office.
This will not be an easy task, however, as the deficit in Finland's newly-created wellbeing services counties is expected to rise above a billion euros.
The wellbeing counties are already desperately scrambling to make savings, with the biggest region recently announcing the beginning of redundancy talks while other health authorities have been forced to close units and health centres.
3. Taxation
The government has stated that it does not intend to increase overall taxation.
The coalition's programme for government includes an indexed revision of income tax, with a focus on low and middle income earners.
"Taxation of earned income will be adjusted annually in line with the index of wage and salary earnings or the consumer price index, depending on which index increases more rapidly," the programme states.
According to the finance ministry's figures, this revision will mean a loss of 648 million euros to state coffers next year.
The government also plans to cut fuel tax and also wants to raise taxes on spirits and wine but lower them on beer. These changes are expected to raise an additional 63 million euros in revenue for the state.
4. Crisis in the construction sector
A wave of bankruptcies and redundancies has hit Finland's construction sector in recent months, and the situation is expected to deteriorate further over the coming months.
This downturn in construction could have a detrimental, knock on effect on other segments of the economy, and the government has proposed implementing a four-billion-euro investment programme aimed at stimulating the sector.
"Construction projects that have a real impact on employment require long preparation and planning. Such measures should already be in place to help the sector next year," Uusitalo noted.
5. Unemployment insurance contributions
One of the most controversial issues in the government's draft budget concerns unemployment insurance contributions.
The Unemployment Fund currently has a 1.4 billion euro surplus, which has accumulated from lower expenditures due to the positive employment situation in the Finnish labour market.
PM Orpo told Yle TV1's A-Talk discussion programme last week that the surplus could be used to ease taxes for both employees and employers.
For workers, a reduction in contributions would in practice mean an extra "tax cut". However, the government is keen to use at least some of the money to balance the economy.
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