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Neither first nor last — Finland plays waiting game on Palestine recognition

Finland says it will recognise Palestine at some future point.

A pro-Palestinian protest outside the University of Helsinki.
Pictured here: A pro-Palestinian encampment in front of a University of Helsinki building on 12 June, 2024. Image: Kristiina Lehto / Yle

At the end of May, Norway, Ireland and Spain formally recognised the state of Palestine, adding their names and weight to a list of 143 countries backing Palestine's pursuit of self-determination.

Finland is not currently on that list.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Elina Valtonen (NCP) says Finland will recognise Palestine sometime in the future.

"We are following the international discussion on this issue closely. Finland is a strong supporter of the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and will recognise Palestine at some point. The appropriate time has to be chosen carefully. It is a matter of when, not if," Valtonen told Yle in an email.

Finland historically tends to align with other Nordic countries, but a split has formed within the group on this issue. Sweden recognised Palestine in 2014, nearly a full decade before Norway's recent decision, but at the end of May, Denmark rejected a proposal to recognise a Palestinian state.

Across the EU, only a third of member states recognise Palestine. Olli Ruohomäki, a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA), suggests Finland could be waiting for a broader EU consensus.

"Finland doesn't want to be in the forefront of things. Nor does it want to be the last in line either. It's a bit removed from our immediate reality, where other things are more at the top of the agenda: Nato, Ukraine, Russia. Finland wants to do it when all the other EU member states go together," says Ruohomäki.

Too slow on ceasefire

Finland has supported Palestine's state-building efforts over the years by working with the Palestinian Land Authority on land title deeds, the Palestinian Water Authority on water and sanitation, and by contributing expertise to the civilian police through the Palestinian security sector reform.

However, in light of the events of the last eight months, Finland has been criticised for responding too slowly and insubstantially.

With more than 35,000 people in Gaza killed since 7 October, and the UN estimating that some 370,000 housing units in the territory have been destroyed, calls for a ceasefire have grown louder.

Aid organisations say Israel has made the delivery of assistance more difficult than it needs to be.

Israel has also been accused of genocide in a case brought by South Africa at the International Court of Justice, and even the United States State Department now says it is "reasonable to conclude" that Israel "may have" committed war crimes.

Sedeer el-Showk is an activist and board member of Sumud, an organisation that has co-organised weekly public protests over the past eight months — predominantly in Helsinki. The protests call for an immediate ceasefire and an end to military cooperation and arms trading with Israel.

"I think the Finnish government has not done nearly enough. They've reacted very slowly. and have not used the tools that they have to put pressure on Israel. In some cases, the Finnish government has even voted against the international consensus in the UN,'' says el-Showk

In October last year, Finland abstained from voting on a UN resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire, a move criticised by Left Alliance leader Li Andersson. Finland eventually changed its position.

In January this year, Finland suspended its funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) after Israel accused UNRWA employees of being Hamas members, only to reinstate it two months later after it emerged there was little evidence to support Israel's claims.

Recently Finland has been more vocal in its opposition to the ongoing war.

The Foreign Ministry condemned Israel's push into the West Bank and the illegal confiscation of Palestinian territory. On X, Finnish Foreign Minister Valtonen welcomed the EU's decision to call a meeting of the council that governs relations between the bloc and Israel, following deadly attacks on Rafah, a safe zone designated by the International Criminal Court of Justice.

The lag in decisive action is frustrating, says Sedeer el-Showk, who believes Finland shouldn't underestimate its clout in recognising a sovereign state of Palestine.

"I don't think it's valid to say we are not going to do the right thing because we're not a significant enough player to ultimately decide how this changes. If Finland adds its name to that list, eventually if you get enough countries, you can see a change in European policy." says el-Showk

Nonetheless, the Foreign Ministry says that the staggered process of the two-state solution is the only way to achieve peace in the region.

"Ultimately, it is the only way to ensure the security and rights of both peoples. We work to advance the two-state solution as part of the EU as well as through our bilateral contacts,"' Foreign Minister Valtonen told Yle via email.

The process, though, has long been put on hold.

An idea tabled for over 30 years

The framework for the establishment of a Palestinian state began with the Oslo Accords of the 1990s. According to the two agreements, areas of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip would become self-governing Palestinian territories. The Palestinian Authority was established to administer parts of these territories.

The Oslo Accords invoked optimism and opposition on both sides. The most difficult questions, such as the fate of Israeli settlements and the status of Jerusalem, were left out of them. They were to be negotiated after a five-year transition period.

However, some 30 years later these questions are still unresolved.

The last time there were direct negotiations about a two-state solution was in 2014, during the US Obama-led administration.

Since then the US has tried to negotiate "normalisation" deals with Saudi Arabia that would involve Saudi Arabia recognising Israel and normalising relations in return for deepened ties with the US and unspecified concessions to the Palestinians. This echoed similar bilateral deals signed with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, which were not predicated on progress towards a two-state solution.

However the international community — which, like Finland, already has "normal" relations with Israel — appears to be doubling down on the idea despite significant obstacles remaining.

Recognising politics in disarray

Palestinian leadership is split between The Palestinian Authority, the Fatah-led Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and Hamas, whom several countries classify as a terrorist organisation and refuse to recognise as a representative of Palestinians.

"It's really challenging because on the one hand, any negotiation process in any peace process should be owned by the parties concerned and now we are unfortunately in a situation where the negotiation process is very lopsided. The political situation within the Palestinian polity is in disarray, particularly the dividing lines between Fatah and Hamas and the institutions for a Palestinian state are not yet ripe for running an independent state," says FIIA Senior Fellow, Olli Ruohomäki.

The Palestinian Authority has not held elections for almost 20 years, is suffering from crippling financial difficulties and is on the verge of collapse.

On the Israeli side, there's been a strong shift to the right, and few politicians back the idea of a two-state solution. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is strongly opposed.

When asked whether Israel plans to recognise the state of Palestine in the future, Hagit Ben-Yaakov, ambassador of Israel to Finland and Estonia, says Palestine would need to undergo serious transformations before the question is considered.

"During the past several decades Israel has presented different outlines towards Palestinian independence (e.g. the Oslo and Camp David Accords, Prime Minister Netanyahu's Bar-Ilan speech). Time and time again, Israel was answered with brutal attacks by Palestinian terrorists. If we want to see progress today, the Palestinian Authority must go through major reforms, including organising all aspects of civic life and establishing real security cooperation in fighting terrorism," says Ben-Yaakov.

Impossible lines to draw

The proposed two-state model would establish an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel, drawn up along the 1967 borders. However, in practice, Israel has made the establishment of an independent Palestinian state extremely complicated.

Gaza has been increasingly cut off from the West Bank and the settlements Israel has illegally, according to international law, built in the West Bank have left more a patchwork of Palestinian territories rather than a single territory a border can be drawn around.

"It's like a Swiss cheese with more and more holes in it, in terms of being an area that's continuous and viable. Basically, all the markers that you need for a state to survive independently are being eaten out from within because of the lack of any meaningful political process," says Ruohomäki.

A gesture with no substance

Across the broad spectrum of politics, there is scepticism toward the two-state solution and even accusations that it is part of the problem, distracting from the urgent needs on the ground: humanitarian aid and the reconstruction of Gaza.

According to Sedeer el-Showk, recognising Palestine, while important, has little material value.

"In the absence of concrete action towards ending the occupation and apartheid, and the decolonisation and realisation of human rights, recognising a Palestinian state is simply symbolic. And as a symbolic act, it has value, but without concrete actions to back it up, it remains merely a gesture," says el-Showk.

The focus should be on ending violence and ensuring that Palestinians' rights are enshrined and protected, he adds.

So what would Finland's voice actually add to the many around the world calling for an end to the war?

Olli Ruohomäki says as an outsider the critical role you can play is as a mirror.

"Change comes only at the final instance from within. The international conversation helps shine a light or put a mirror up in front of society, in this case Israeli society."

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