The number of elementary schools in Finland could halve by the end of the next decade, according to a report commissioned by the Ministry of Education and Culture.
The study analysed Finland's birth rate and demographic changes as a means of predicting how the trends will affect the number of school-going children over the next 15 years.
The report forecasts that there will be almost 100,000 fewer elementary school pupils in 2040 than there currently are.
This dramatic predicted drop in the number of students will make it impractical for some schools, especially ones in rural areas, to remain open. According to the report, some areas in Finland will no longer be able to offer elementary school education to local children, meaning that they will have to travel neighbouring municipalities to attend school.
The below graphic shows how Finland's population of seven-year-olds — the age at which children generally start school in Finland — will decrease by region over the next 15 years.
Finland's birth rate has long been in decline, with the downward trend leading to the nation's fertility rate hitting a historic low of 1.25 in 2024.
Immigration is the main factor sustaining Finland's population growth, and the ministry-commissioned forecast suggests this trend will also affect the number of children in schools.
For example, the report predicts that the number of children with a non-native background under the age of 15 will grow by about 86,000 by 2040.
Rural schools facing bleak future
Last year, only three children were born in the small village of Karijoki in Southern Ostrobothnia.
"With the current birth rate, the forecast is that by 2030 there will be only 38 schoolchildren in Karijoki," the area's municipal manager Marko Keski-Sikkilä told Yle. "At that point, we will have to seriously consider how to arrange education."
A similar challenge faces the town of Muurame, near Jyväskylä. Although its population has been growing, a falling birth rate means there are currently fewer than 100 children in pre-school education.
"We’re managing reasonably well in this situation, but we really should be concerned about the situation nationwide in regard to the number of children, especially if we want to continue having taxpayers in the country in the future," the town's Director of Education Jukka Koivisto said.
