The number of high school (lukio) students in Finland is projected to fall sharply over the coming years, raising concerns about school closures and the future availability of education in many parts of the country.
According to a new report by the Association of Finnish Local and Regional Authorities, student numbers are expected to decline by around 21,000 over the next 15 years. By 2040, Finland could have more than 20 percent fewer high school students than it does today.
The trend is largely driven by Finland's falling birth rate, which began declining steeply in the early 2010s.
The report found that no region of Finland is expected to see growth in high school student numbers, although regional differences are significant. The smallest declines are seen in the Helsinki and Turku regions, while 24 municipalities could see student numbers roughly halve.
The falling numbers are expected to increase financial pressure on municipalities and schools.
There are currently 377 high schools in Finland, of which 315 are municipally run. One in ten has fewer than 45 students, and during this spring's joint application round, 24 schools received ten or fewer first-choice applicants.
Schools already noticing significant changes
Some schools are already seeing declining interest. In Mänttä-Vilppula, south of Jyväskylä, the local high school saw the number of first-choice applicants fall from 52 last year to 33 this spring.
According to its deputy principal, Johanna Rintapää, changes to government policy on tuition fees for students from outside the EU and EEA have also affected recruitment.
"Last year, 15 students from Vietnam, Myanmar, China and Thailand began their studies. This spring, there were nine international applicants, of whom three Vietnamese students are expected to start," Rintapää said.
Municipal costs on the rise
The report noted that declining student numbers are increasing costs per pupil at a time when municipal finances are already under strain.
Operating costs vary widely. For example, in Helsinki, upper secondary education costs around 9,600 euros per student, while in the Loviisa region the figure is close to 21,000 euros.
Irmeli Myllymäki, Director of Education Affairs at the Association of Finnish Local and Regional Authorities, said municipalities should begin preparing now rather than waiting for student numbers to collapse further.
Suggested solutions include closer cooperation between schools, shared teaching staff and course offerings, greater use of remote teaching, and mergers between schools or municipalities.
